odds vs probability

Coming from Engineering cum Human Resource Development background, has over 10 years experience in content developmet and management. As against, probability determines, the likelihood of the happening of an event, i.e. Boston University School of Public Health, The Difference Between "Probability" and "Odds", Computing the Confidence Interval for an Odds Ratio. All Rights Reserved. Even probability is easy to work mathematically, but harder to apply in gambling. If we know the odds in favor of an event, the probability is just the odds divided by one plus the odds. We again reconsider the previous examples and produce estimates of odds ratios and compare these to our estimates of risk differences and relative risks. Compute the confidence interval for Ln(OR) using the equation above.

Odds refers to the chances in favor of the event to the chances against it. For example, if we have 10 marbles in a jar, 4 blue and 6 green, then the probability of drawing a green is 6/10 or 3/5. Note that an odds ratio is a good estimate of the risk ratio when the outcome occurs relatively infrequently (<10%). Probability is 1/4 while odds in favor are 1/3. Probability is a broader mathematical concept. As a result, the point estimate is imprecise. That’s why we have two different ways to express the concept.

Consider again the hypothetical pilot study on pesticide exposure and breast cancer: We can compute a 95% confidence interval for this odds ratio as follows: This gives the following interval (0.61, 3.18), but this still need to be transformed by finding their antilog (1.85-23.94) to obtain the 95% confidence interval. In addition, like a risk ratio, odds ratios do not follow a normal distribution, so we use the lo g transformation to promote normality. The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. There are 6 chances of getting a green marble and total number of chances of getting a marble is 10. When the outcome of interest is relatively rare (<10%), then the odds ratio and relative risk will be very close in magnitude. Odds = Probability/(1-Probability).

In such a case, investigators often interpret the odds ratio as if it were a relative risk (i.e., as a comparison of risks rather than a comparison of odds which is less intuitive). The term ‘odds’ is used to describe that if there are any chances of the occurrence of an event or not. All rights reserved.

If the horse runs 100 races and wins 5 and loses the other 95 times, the probability of winning is 0.05 or 5%, and the odds of the horse winning are 5/95 = 0.0526. If the horse runs 100 races and wins 50, the probability of winning is 50/100 = 0.50 or 50%, and the odds of winning are 50/50 = 1 (even odds). return to top | previous page | next page, Content ©2017. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy: Legal. If the horse runs 100 races and wins 80, the probability of winning is 80/100 = 0.80 or 80%, and the odds of winning are 80/20 = 4 to 1. However, there is a difference. Probability= Odds/(1+Odds). Notice also that the confidence interval is asymmetric, i.e., the point estimate of OR=6.65 does not lie in the exact center of the confidence interval. Using the same data, we then generated a point estimate for the risk ratio and found RR= 0.46/0.22 = 2.09 and a 95% confidence interval of (1.14, 3.82). Odds uses the contexts of good outcomes and bad outcomes. In this, case the scale is from 0% to 100%. Odds are the ratio of favourable events to the unfavourable event. Your email address will not be published. The null, or no difference, value of the confidence interval for the odds ratio is one.

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